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ORC24 Stuart Wright Subtitled.mp4 (311.33 MB)

Video - Stuart Wright - Open Research Conference 2024 (Subtitled)

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conference contribution
posted on 2024-05-14, 13:10 authored by Stuart WrightStuart Wright

MANC-RISK-SCREEN: Development of an open and transparent model to evaluate risk-based breast cancer screening in the UK

The MANC-RISK-SCREEN model is a simulation model which evaluates the clinical and economic outcomes of different risk-based breast cancer screening strategies in the UK. Through the past 2 years, my co-authors and I have been through a process aiming to update and improve the openness and accessibility of the model. This presentation will detail the steps we have taken to address these aims.

To improve the openness of the MANC-RISK-SCREEN model four steps were taken. The model code was made openly available on GitHub for re-use or adaptation by other research groups. To improve the transparency of the model and its assumptions, a full validation of the model was undertaken and published as a pre-print, with a full journal article under review. To allow non-technical users to access the model, the researcher worked with Research IT to develop an app to allow users to change the input parameters and observe the impact on the results of the model. Finally, the research team are now working with developers of other models of risk-based screening to evaluate screening and compare results to improve evidence for decision making.

These steps have proved beneficial for the research The model is now being adapted by a PhD student at the University of Aberdeen to evaluate the use of artificial intelligence in breast cancer screening. The student highlighted several minor errors in the model, which were corrected. Feedback from decision makers suggests that the validation of the model has improved their trust in its results. Based on the experience of developing the app, the research team have developed grant applications including this approach with more user input. Based on the experience of working with other researchers, the lead model developer has established a national network to improve the quality of evidence generated by economic models.

Additional information can be found here:
Validation of a decision-analytic model for the cost-effectiveness analysis of a risk-
stratified National Breast Screening Programme in the United Kingdom

UK National Screening Committee Blog – Experts discuss models for personalised
breast screening based on risk


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